Collaborative proposal development sustains shared interests in relevant climate data and tools for use in water supply and resource planning. Two externally funded projects funded by NOAA CPO helped to initialize the network. Proposals continue to be developed.
Project Dates: 09/01/2011-8/31/2013 extended to 8/31/2014 (COMPLETE)
Funding Agency: NOAA SARP CPO
Project Lead:
Wendy Dimbero Graham
Project Participants:
Keith Talbert Ingram
Tracy Anne Irani
Additional Participants:
Sebastian Galindo
Christopher Martinez
Vasu Misra, FSU
Lisette Staal, UF Water Institute
The University of Florida Water Institute, Florida State University and the Southeast Climate Consortium, along with representatives from seven major public water supply utilities and three Water Management Districts in Florida, propose to develop and implement a collaborative Working Group to increase the regional relevance and usability of climate and sea level rise data and tools for the specific needs of water suppliers and resources managers in Florida. The Florida Water and Climate Alliance (FloridaWCA) Working Group will operate as a learning and collaboration platform and will employ participatory methods and a knowledge management framework to promote shared knowledge, data, models and decision-making tools.
The goal of this project is to increase the regional relevance and usability of climate and sea level rise data and tools for the specific needs of water suppliers and resources managers in Florida. Specific objectives are to:
- Develop a collaborative “Working Group”
- Identify the appropriate spatio-temporal scales, climatic indices, and events that drive utilities’ decisions
- Evaluate the practical applicability of current climate data, models, tools at these scales
- Evaluate the usefulness of these data for minimizing current and future risks associated with climate in decision making processes.
Project Documents:
- Executive Advisory Committee Meeting Notes (November 2011)
- Technical Working Group “Roadmaps” (May 2012): Seasonal Scale Forecasts; Long-term Climate Scenarios; Sea Level Rise
- Annual Report Year 1
- Annual Report Year 2
- Annual Report Year 3
Project Dates: 10/01/2012-06/31/2014 (COMPLETE)
Funding Agency: NOAA SARP CPO
Project Lead:
Wendy Dimbero Graham
Project Participants:
Christopher Martinez
Additional Participants:
Alison Adams, Tampa Bay Water
Ronnie Best, USGS
Jessica Bolson, SECC, UF
Ben Kirtman, U Miami
Vasu Misra, FSU
Kevin Morris, MRWSA
Louis Murray, USGS
Jayantha Obeysekera, SFWMD
Lisette Staal, UF Water Institute
The overall goal of this project is to improve the regional relevance of seasonal climate forecasts and increase their usability for multiple water managers in Florida to minimize short-term operational risks for water supply as well as ecosystem restoration.
The specific objectives of this project are to:
• Evaluate of the skill of the large-scale NMME seasonal climate predictions (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, humidity, wind speed) on a daily basis over all seasons and over a common grid across the Southeast US. We will use the NMME set of seasonal hindcasts, which are from seven different global coupled ocean-atmosphere models.
• Statistical downscaling of the NMME forecasts to the watershed scale and evaluate the skill of these seasonal predictions over three specific domains: Peace River Manasota Regional Water Supply Authority, Tampa Bay Water and the South Florida Water Management District.
• Execution of a comparative study across three organizations of the benefits and limitations of using seasonal climate forecasts for their operational needs using the following techniques: Interviews, Qualitative focus groups, Cross organizational comparisons and analysis
Project Documents:
Project Dates: 06/2019 - 05/2022
Funding Agency: NASA
Project Lead:
Christopher Martinez
Project Participants:
Tracy Irani, Jasmeet Judge, Karen Schlatter (University of Florida), Vasu Misra (Florida State University), Tirusew Asefa (Tampa Bay Water) and Kevin Morris (Peace River Manasota Regional Water Supply Authority)
This project seeks to improve water allocation and storage decisions by public water utilities through the development of a real-time monitoring product and integration of high (10-km) resolution regional seasonal forecasts centered over Florida. The real-time monitoring product will use NASA Earth science products to anticipate the likelihood of early or late onsite/demise of seasons in peninsular Florida (which has very distinct wet and dry seasons). Customized dynamical seasonal climate forecasts will be provided that incorporate multiple NASA satellite- and model-based products. An extensive set of retrospective forecasts (reforecasts) from 2000-present for the winter (dry) season will be produced as part of this project. They will serve in developing robust bias correction of the forecasts, which has been previously demonstrated by the investigators to be critical for their effective use in hydrologic applications. This work is practical in that the application readiness of several components have been demonstrated in the peer-reviewed literature. This proposed work is innovative in that: 1) It has been designed and proposed by an established stakeholder-scientist partnership, 2) It will provide forecasts at a desired frequency, lead time, and resolution of derived variables that are relevant to hydrologic applications but are not currently available from operational centers, 3) It will use multiple NASA satellite and model-based products to initialize and force our dynamical forecasts, and 4) It will effectively resolve the land-ocean interaction that is known to affect the Florida peninsula. We will demonstrate the efficacy of our seasonal forecasts and integrate them into decision support tools used by Tampa Bay Water and the Peace River Manasota Regional Water Supply Authority that will include: treamflow forecasts and Aquifer Storage and Recovery (ASR) operations. These partners, as members of the Florida Water and Climate Alliance (FloridaWCA), have demonstrated sustained and continuing interest in integrating improved forecast products into their decision making tools. The FloridaWCA is a stakeholder-scientist partnership that was initiated in 2010 on the basis of a shared interest in community building to create actionable science and this project leverages this stakeholder-scientist network to examine the efficacy of its members’ decision making processes with respect to adoption of the project’s forecasting and decision support products. Building on our previous research, multi-organizational partnerships, and multi-disciplinary scientist-stakeholder team, we believe the proposed project aligns well with the NASA Earth Science Division Applied Science Program’s interest in developing and demonstrating the use of Earth observations and related products in applied research that will be integrated into water resources management and decision-making.
Anticipated Project Outputs:
- Customized seasonal forecasts for public water utilities in Florida
- Customized data products that could improve current seasonal source allocation (environmental and cost implications) and water shortage risk management tools.
- Seasonal streamflow forecasts using our forecasts with higher skill compared to using lagged observations or CPC/ENSO outlook
- Improved ASR recovery operations due to improved forecasts that are location-specific
- Development of the next generation of talent through training in climate modeling including delivering time sensitive climate forecast products in an operational setting
Project Documents:
Project Publications
Project | Author(s) | Publication Date | Title | Document Type | Document | project_hfilter | document_type_hfilter |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Project 1 | Asefa, T. and A. Adams | 2013 | Reducing bias corrected precipitation projections uncertainties: A Bayesian based indicator weighting approach | Publication | project-1 | publication | |
Project 1 | Bastola, S. | 2013 | Hydrologic impacts of future climate change on Southeast US watersheds, Reg. Environ Change, Springer-Verdag Berlin Heidelberg | Publication | project-1 | publication | |
Project 1 | Bastola, S. V. Misra, and H.Li | 2013 | Seasonal hydrological forecasts for watersheds over the Southeastern United States for boreal summer and fall seasons | Publication | project-1 | publication | |
Project 1 | Bolson, J., C. Martinez, N. Breuer, P. Srivastava, P. Knox | 2013 | Climate information use among southeast US water managers: beyond barriers and toward opportunities | Publication | project-1 | publication | |
Project 1 | Chang, S. , WD Graham, S Hwang, R Muñoz-Carpena | 2016 | Sensitivity of future continental United States water deficit projections to general circulation models, the evapotranspiration estimation method, and the greenhouse gas emission scenario | Publication | project-1 | publication | |
Project 1 | Hwang, S., W. Graham, J. Hernández, C. Martinez, J. Jones, and A. Adams | 2011 | Quantitative Spatiotemporal evaluation of dynamically downscaled MM5 precipitation predictions over the Tampa Bay region, Florida | Publication | project-1 | publication | |
Project 1 | Hwang, S., W. Graham, A. Adams, and J. Guerink | 2013 | Assessment of the utility of dynamically-downscaled regional reanalysis data to predict streamflow in west central Florida using an integrated hydrologic model | Publication | project-1 | publication | |
Project 1 | Hwang, S., and W. Graham | 2013 | Development and comparative evaluation of a stochastic analog method to downscale daily GCM precipitation | Publication | project-1 | publication | |
Project 1 | Hwang, S., and W. Graham | 2014 | Assessment of alternative methods for statistically downscaling daily GCM precipitation outputs to simulate regional streamflow | Publication | project-1 | publication | |
Project 1 | Hwang, S., W. Graham, J. Guerink, and A. Adams | 2014 | Hydrologic implications of errors in bias-corrected regional reanalysis data for west-central Florida | Publication | project-1 | publication | |
Project 1 | Li, Haiqin, et. al. | 2013 | Projected climate change scenario over California by a regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model system | Publication | project-1 | publication | |
Project 1 | Li, Haiquin and V. Misra | 2014 | Thirty-two-year ocean-atmosphere coupled downscaling of global reanalysis over the Intra-American Seas | Publication | project-1 | publication | |
Project 1 | Misra, V.; S.M. DiNapoli, S. Bastola | 2013 | Dynamic downscaling of the twentieth-century reanalysis over the southeastern United States | Publication | project-1 | publication | |
Project 1 | Misra, V. | 2013 | The NOAA MAPP Climate Prediction Task Force | Publication | project-1 | publication | |
Project 1 | Nag, B., V. Misra, and S. Bastola | 2014 | Validating ENSO teleconnections on Southeastern United States Winter Hydrology | Publication | project-1 | publication | |
Project 1 | Obeysekera, J. | 2013 | Validating climate models for computing evapotranspiration in hydrologic studies: how relevant are climate model simulations over Florida? | Publication | project-1 | publication | |
Project 2 | Risko, S, and C. Martinez | 2014 | Forecasts of seasonal streamflow in West-Central Florida using multiple climate predictors | Publication | project-2 | publication | |
Project 2 | Tian, D., Martinez, C.J., Graham, W.D. and S. Hwang | 2014 | Statistical downscaling multi-model forecasts for seasonal precipitation and temperature over southeastern USA | Publication | project-2 | publication | |
Project 2 | Tian, D., Martinez, C.J., and W.D. Graham | 2014 | Seasonal predictions of regional reference evapotranspiration (ETo) based on Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) | Publication | project-2 | publication | |
Project 2 | Tian Di, and C. Martinez | 2013 | Seasonal forecasting skill of the National multimodel Ensemble (NMME) over southeastern United States | Presentation | project-2 | presentation | |
Project 2 | Asefa, Tirusew | 2013 | Use of Climate Information in Tampa Bay Water Decision Support Tools | Presentation | project-2 | presentation | |
Project 2 | Morris, Kevin | 2013 | Peace River Manasota Regional Water Supply Authority Decision Processes Related to Water Supply Management Choices | Presentation | project-2 | presentation | |
Project 2 | Morris, Kevin | 2013 | PRMRWA Decision Tool Case Study- When to start ASR? | Presentation | project-2 | presentation | |
Project 1 | Chang, S. J., W. Graham, J. Geurink, N. Wanakule, and T. Asefa | 2018 | Evaluation of impacts of future climate change and water use scenarios on regional hydrology | Publication | project-1 | publication | |
Project 1 | Chang, S., Graham, W., and S. Hwang | 2018 | Bias-Corrected Stochastic Analog (BCSA) downscaled climate variables for Southeast U.S.: Instruction and Data to Produce | Dataset | project-1 | dataset | |
Project 3 | Misra, Vasu; Bhardwaj, Amit | 2020 | Florida 2020-21 Winter Forecast | Presentation | project-3 | presentation | |
Project 3 | Misra, V., Jayasankar, C.B., Beasley, P. and Bhardwaj, A. | 2022 | Operational Monitoring of the Evolution of Rainy Season Over Florida | Publication | project-3 | publication | |
Project 3 | Bhardwaj, A., Misra, V., Kirtman, B., Asefa, T., Maran, C., Morris, K., Carter, E., Martinez, C., Roberts, D. | 2021 | Experimental High-Resolution Winter Seasonal Climate Reforecasts for Florida | Publication | project-3 | publication |